More than 107,000 Palm Beach County properties are at risk of flooding from torrential rains, ocean surges and swelling tides — a sizeable hike compared to what a federal agency considers vulnerable and a difference that could mean disaster for uninsured homeowners, according to a new non-profit analysis.
Brooklyn-based First Street Foundation combined federal elevation data with models of sea level rise, tropical cyclone impacts, rainfall and river flooding to get what it says is a truer picture of flood risk today and through 2050 as the climate changes.
The warnings of enhanced future flooding are nothing new to coastal South Floridians who already deal with fall’s creeping king tides, and have had companies such as Boca Raton-based Coastal Risk Consulting creating catered reports of a home’s vulnerability for years.
But the First Street research shows an alarming gap in some areas of the country between what the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) currently considers at risk for flood-insurance purposes and its own assessment.
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Palm Beach County particularly stands out in the analysis of Florida with First Street researchers counting 107,062 properties currently at risk of flooding compared to what First Street says FEMA counts, which is 29,857 properties at risk.
That’s an undercount of 77,205 properties — the largest difference in the state, followed by Lee, Charlotte, and Broward counties.
First Street created the free website FloodFactor.com for property owners to see how their FEMA flood information compares to its analysis. For Palm Beach County, it shows FEMA as having just 6.8 percent of homes at risk, whereas First Street found 24 percent.
“The main thing is we know that this information is new and we know that for some folks seeing the flood risk information for the first time may be concerning,” said First Street founder and executive director Matthew Eby. “There are sophisticated real estate investors using this information but the market overall and Americans at large are operating with blinders on.”
’I bought flood insurance ... for $450 a year, I sleep well at night'
There’s little argument that FEMA flood maps can be deficient when it comes to individual homes. The federal agency is stretched thin, struggling to keep its flood maps up to date, particularly for inland areas perceived to be less vulnerable than the coasts, experts said.
The agency also looks only at historical data to assess where flooding could strike next, leaving out current and future models that assess where else risk might exist or even be growing and putting less emphasis on rainfall.
And, mapping can become highly contentious as homeowners fight being put in flood zones that would require them to buy flood insurance.
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“Why do FEMA maps look the way they do? The reason is they are politicized because there is a required link between National Flood Insurance Protection and federally-backed mortgages,” said Coastal Risk Consulting President Albert Slap, who lives in Boca Raton in an area where flood insurance isn’t required. “Our model shows there is a heavy rainfall risk here so I bought flood insurance and for $450 a year, I sleep well at night.”
In West Palm, engineered communities that will survive a 100-year flood
Palm Beach County has a storied past with FEMA flood maps. County and municipal officials worked hard during a 2013-remapping by FEMA — the first in 30 years — to ensure the agency had the most recent information on South Florida’s elaborate flood control system and communities that were engineered so that homes sit above floodwaters.
Ralph Wall, a flood insurance coordinator for West Palm Beach, said the 2013 maps put thousands of properties in communities including Andros Isles, Baywinds and Riverwalk into high risk flood zones when they were designed with specialized pumps and homes built at permitted heights to avoid flooding.
“We had to go back and hire contractors to redo the maps and show them that these are engineered communities that will survive a 100-year flood event without any property damage,” Wall said. “FEMA incorporated that into the maps and it was like Atlantis rising up out of the sea.”
The county’s FEMA maps were adopted in 2017
Although First Street had a team of people adding levees and flood control structures to its data, some Palm Beach County officials and South Florida hydrologists suspect details on the lacework of canals and pump stations may not be reflected in First Street’s analysis.
“This is a national product that should only be used when other data sources are not available and only when it has been reviewed by a professional engineer/hydrologist for that particular usage,” said Elizabeth Perez, president of Collective Water Resources, which has offices in Lake Worth and West Palm Beach. “Collective suspects that the methodology used by this foundation is only somewhat applicable to Florida’s hydrology and watersheds.”
FEMA considers the vulnerability of the home on the property, said Eric Ratcliffe, chief operating officer of Massive Cert, Inc., which once did modeling for FEMA and provided information to First Street.
“Lenders care about the structure, not the grass,” Ratcliffe said. “Who cares if the grass gets wet.”
Isaac flooded western communities but few homes suffered major damage
In 2012 when Tropical Storm Isaac flooded Palm Beach County’s western communities, roads and yards were underwater as the three-tiered regional flood control system struggled to keep up with double-digit rainfall, but few homes suffered significant damage.
When FEMA presented new maps to Wellington, the village conducted its own Lidar high-resolution mapping to show the most accurate elevation of homes. That evidence led to the majority of properties being taken off the high-risk flood list, said Jacek Tomasik, who oversees the Village of Wellington’s building department.
In the 33414 Zip code, which includes the Mall at Wellington Green and communities to its west, First Street shows 6,044 properties at risk, whereas FEMA lists just 680, according to First Street’s analysis.
The largest discrepancy between FEMA’s risk areas and those of First Street is in the 33418 Zip code, which includes parts of Palm Beach Gardens and Riviera Beach. In those areas, FEMA has 336 homes considered at risk, while First Street considers 6,457 properties at risk.
“The FEMA zone differences in our model are the result of methodological differences and political influence,” said Jeremy Porter, First Street’s director of research and development.
Palm Beach County also has a gaping hole down its center from Lake Worth Road to Glades Road that is outside FEMA’s Special Flood Hazard Area. First Street believes much of this area is currently at risk of flooding, but water managers from the county and Lake Worth Drainage District say it’s an area where a spiderweb of canals provides a widespread level of flood protection.
“It’s just a pretty low flood risk area,” said Jeremy McBryan, Palm Beach County’s water resources manager. “It’s not a void, per se, just a consistently low risk zone.”
First Street evaluated 442,040 properties in Palm Beach County and 8.9 million statewide. Parks and roads were scrubbed from the total property list and condo units were collapsed into a single property address.
Situation is bad now, but according to First Street’s analysis, it will get worse
Nationwide, First Street’s modeling found that about 14.6 million homes and other structures across the country currently face a 1% annual risk of flooding, representing about one out of every 10 such real estate parcels nationwide. But First Street calculated that current maps developed by FEMA list just 8.7 million properties in the floodplain, a 40% undercount compared with what First Street found.
And the situation is getting worse. In addition to a present-day analysis, First Street’s modeling incorporated 2050 projections from the International Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations’ primary scientific body on the issue. The conclusion: Another 1.6 million properties will be at 1% annual risk of flooding by 2050.
The 1% threshold is the gold standard used by the federal government to assess which homeowners are required to buy flood insurance. But experts say it’s also misleading, as it actually equates a 1-in-4 chance of flooding over the course of a 30-year mortgage.
In an email, an unnamed FEMA spokesperson said the agency’s flood insurance risk maps and First Street’s maps do not conflict with each other, “rather they complement one another by depicting different types of risk and will be helpful in different ways for an individual to determine flood risk.”
The Association of State Floodplain Managers also says First Street’s analysis could be used in tandem with FEMA maps, but cautions against using First Street as the only source.
Wall, the West Palm Beach insurance coordinator, notes that FEMA is working on a “Risk Rating 2.0” that will fix many of the quirks in the current insurance system that puts one property in an expensive high-risk zone, but not one across the street that has virtually as much risk.
“Water doesn’t see an arbitrary line,” Wall said. “It seeks its own level and it’s going to flood where it’s going to flood.”
USA Today contributed to this story.
Kmiller@pbpost.com
@Kmillerweather
Top 10 Zip codes with biggest flood risk disparities between FEMA and First Street
Zip code: FEMA properties at risk ... First Street properties at risk
33418: 336 ... 6,457
33467: 40 ... 5,725
33414: 680 ... 6,044
33466: 19 ... 3,271
33458: 921 ... 3,838
33460: 675 ... 3,453
33478: 54 ... 2,554
33426: 77 ... 2,556
33437: 59 ... 2,529
33436: 57 ... 2,277
Source: First Street Foundation
